Impact of the Haiti crisis on population mobility (01 January 2020 to 28 February 2025)

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Key observations

Part 1 | Estimated population change within the Metropolitan Area of Port-au-Prince (ZMPAP) due to mobility, November 2024 to February 2025

• 1ere Section Turgeau in Port-au-Prince and 1ere Section St. Martin in Delmas experienced very large population decreases (-9,080 and -7,180 respectively) from November 2024 to February 2025 (and especially in November 2024).
• Turgeau decreased mostly due to relocations within the ZMPAP, while the decrease in Saint-Martin resulted from relocations with communal sections both within and outside of the ZMPAP.
• The population of most other sections of the ZMPAP increased, particularly in 5e Section Bellevue Chardonnière in Pétion-Ville (+3,380), and 3e Section Bellevue in Tabarre (+2,170), due to relocations within the ZMPAP (Table 1.1) and most from St-Martin and Turgeau (Figure 1.1).
• Generally, population change in communal sections of the ZMPAP has been driven by internal mobility within the ZMPAP (Table 1.1).
• Our data do not show movements within each communal section and cannot be directly compared with the latest DTM reports for this reason (ETT 57.3), but the communal sections with the largest population decreases (Turgeau and St Martin) are those affected by armed violence, as well as those with the highest reported displacements and site closures according to DTM.

Population changes within sections of the ZMPAP can be sudden; to put the latest months into perspective with the last five years, please see page 2. Overall, the population of the ZMPAP decreased from November 2024 to February 2025, but only by 6,630 people (see p.3 for the mobility between the ZMPAP and the rest of Haiti, and p.4 for a five-year perspective on population change in the ZMPAP and in the six other large urban areas). Data used in this report can be accessed through: https://haiti.mobility-dashboard.org/

Part 2 | Estimated population change of the 10 largest communal sections of the ZMPAP due to mobility. Overview of the last ~5 years: January 2020 to February 2025

• The estimated population for most communal sections in the ZMPAP has decreased since 2020. 1re Section Turgeau in particular has lost around 100,000 residents since 2022, likely accounting for a large part of the decrease in population observed for the ZMPAP as a whole (p.4).
• Some communal sections have increased since 2020 including 3e Section Etang du Jonc, 3e Section Bellevue, 2e section Morne l’Hôpital and, most notably, 1re section St-Martin, although its population has been decreasing in the past few months (p.1). 
• The population of 5e section Bellevue Chardonnière decreased in 2022 but has been increasing since 2023.
  For most communal sections, the significant magnitude of population changes of the past few years can be put in perspective with the population change triggered by the COVID-19 mobility restrictions imposed in 2020.

Part 3 | Estimated population change from mobility between the Metropolitan Area of Port-au-Prince (ZMPAP) and the rest of Haiti (August 2024 to February 2025)

• The estimated net flow between the Metropolitan Area of Port-au-Prince (ZMPAP) and the rest of Haiti from August 2024 to February 2025 is relatively balanced compared to any other period in the time series (starting February 2020). Fewer people are arriving to (inflows), and are leaving (outflows) ZMPAP, indicating reduced overall mobility.
  • The estimated population of ZMPAP grew from August to November 2024 (+14,670). 
  • But some of these gains were erased from November 2024 to February 2025 (-6,630).
  • Alternance of increases and decreases has been observed numerous times since 2020 (Figure 3.3). 
• Locations with a net inflow (since November) from ZMPAP (in pink) include Cap-Haïtien, Ouanaminthe, Hinche and Arcahaie (reflecting possible returns since October). Locations with a net outflow to ZMPAP) were mainly in Kenscoff but also Marigot, Fond-Verrettes and Anse-à-Veau (in blue). 
• The effect of mobility with the ZMPAP on the estimated populations of communal sections elsewhere in Haiti changes over time. From August to November 2024, most communal sections with higher net outflows to the ZMPAP were in the south of Haiti (in blue, Figure 3.1.). Then, from November 2024 to February 2025, there were more communal sections with high net inflows from the ZMPAP in the north (in pink, Figure 3.2).

Part 4 | Estimated population change of 7 large urban areas due to mobility
. Overview of the last ~5 years: January 2020 to February 2025

• The estimated population of ZMPAP has declined overall since January 2021 (-200,000 people) and remained just below 2.94 million since late April 2024. 
• From August 2024 to February 2025, the estimated population of ZMPAP as a whole has remained relatively constant, as a result of reduced mobility (lower inflows and outflows) and more balanced mobility (lower net flows) with the rest of Haiti (see Figure 3.3.).
  • However, large population changes are estimated for communal sections within ZMPAP (p.1 & p.2), mainly due to mobility between them (p.1).
• In contrast to ZMPAP, population in other urban areas has increased overall since 2021 (Gonaïves, Les Cayes, Jérémie, Jacmel, Saint-Marc), albeit at varying rates, and while the population in Cap-Haïtien was stable until 2024, it has increased by 2.5% in the last year.
• For most urban areas, the population changes of the past few years can be put in perspective with the population change triggered by the COVID-19 mobility restrictions imposed in 2020.

Read the report

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